quantumbottlenecks

Catalyst calendar

The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.

AllI · Cryogenics & dilution refrigeratorsII · Helium-3 & cryogen supplyIII · Isotopes & quantum materialsIV · Control electronics & cryo-CMOSV · Lasers & precision photonicsVI · Ultra-high vacuum systemsVII · Qubit fabrication & foundryVIII · Classical co-processing & error correctionIX · Platform pure-playsX · Private giants & exposure vehicles

July 2026

  • 16EarningsATLKYAtlas Copco Q2 2026 resultsCompany-confirmed for July 16, 2026. Vacuum-led order growth has already been called out in the last two prints; the watch item is whether Edwards' UHV/quantum mix gets explicit commentary as quantum and semi orders scale.
  • 23EarningsHONHoneywell Q2 2026 earnings — first print since the Quantinuum IPOFirst quarter with QNT publicly marked: management commentary on monetizing the ~49% retained stake amid the three-way breakup directly reprices the chokepoint's biggest exposure vehicle.
  • 29EarningsFORMFormFactor Q2 FY2026 earningsFirst full quarter since the Flatiron dilution-refrigerator launch — the cleanest public-market read on whether cryo/quantum Systems-segment demand is inflecting alongside the AI test cycle.
  • 29EarningsFORMFormFactor Q2 FY2026 earnings reportFORM is the only US-listed company selling dilution refrigerators, so its Systems-segment commentary is the cleanest public read on cryostat and cryo-prober demand.
  • 30EarningsLINLinde Q2 2026 earningsFirst read on helium volumes/pricing from the largest liquid-helium distributor, plus any backlog commentary on quantum-dedicated cryoplants like the PsiQuantum Brisbane build.

August 2026

  • 04EarningsGFSGlobalFoundries Q2 2026 earnings — first print after Quantum Technology Solutions launchFirst chance to hear bookings, NRE and capacity commitments for the new quantum business unit backed by the $375M Commerce award — the moment quantum moves from press release toward P&L for the chokepoint's dominant foundry.
  • 12EarningsASPIASP Isotopes Q2 2026 resultsFirst full read on the restarted Si-28 cascade's economics and whether the guided Q3 2026 first commercial shipments under three US contracts remain on track.
  • 12EarningsIONQIonQ Q2 2026 earningsFirst test of whether IonQ's raised $260-270M FY2026 guidance and record $470M RPO convert into organic revenue rather than acquisition accounting — the cohort's bellwether print.
  • 13EarningsCOHRCoherent Q4 FY2026 earningsThe largest US-listed precision-photonics supplier with a dedicated quantum/cold-atom laser portfolio updates lasers-segment demand — and any commentary on Sapphire XT displacing AOM sockets reads directly on this chokepoint.
  • 14EarningsASPIASP Isotopes Q2 2026 earnings and Renergen helium production updateFirst full quarter of consolidated Renergen results — the Phase 1 liquid-helium ramp at the Virginia Gas Project is the nearest-term new-cryogen-supply proof point for this chokepoint.
  • 18EarningsKEYSKeysight fiscal Q3 2026 earningsManagement commentary on QCS order momentum after the AIST G-QuAT and Fujitsu/RIKEN wins is the best available proxy for merchant control-electronics spend per qubit.
  • 26EarningsNVDANVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earningsFirst full post-GA read on NVQLink/cudaq-realtime adoption — any disclosed QPU-builder design wins or quantum commentary marks whether the interconnect standard is becoming installed base.

September 2026

  • 13ConferenceIEEE Quantum Week 2026 (QCE26), Toronto, Sep 13-18The industry's main technical venue for real-time decoder results; FPGA-vs-GPU decode latency benchmarks presented here will sort winners and losers at the decode layer.
  • 13ConferenceIEEE Quantum Week 2026 (QCE26), Toronto, Sept 13-18The industry's main hardware-roadmap venue: qubit-count and fault-tolerance announcements here translate directly into wafer demand at the handful of trusted foundries with quantum process lines.
  • 13ConferenceIEEE Quantum Week (QCE26), Toronto, Sep 13-18The main vendor floor where UHV suppliers court trapped-ion and atom-array builders; watch for quantum-specific vacuum product launches and supply partnerships announced around the exhibit.
  • 30PolicySenate floor vote on National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act (S.3597)Passed Commerce unanimously in April 2026; reauthorization through 2034 plus a quantum manufacturing institute would fund the US decoder and control-silicon R&D pipeline this chokepoint feeds on.
  • 30PolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act — House floor vote (H.R. 8462 / S. 3597)The bill cleared House Science markup April 29 and Senate Commerce unanimously; it directs Commerce to produce a quantum supply-chain resilience plan and funds testbeds — federal procurement that flows directly into control-stack vendors.
  • 30PolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act floor votes (H.R. 8462 / S. 3597)Both chambers' bills cleared committee in April 2026; a five-year reauthorization through 2034 funds the national labs and NIST/DOE centers that are the marginal buyers of dilution refrigerators.
  • 30PolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act (H.R. 8462) House floor voteCleared committee April 29, 2026; the companion Senate bill routes ~$2.5B of quantum R&D through DOE — the same department whose Isotope Program rations He-3 — so passage directly scales fridge and He-3 demand.
  • 30ProgramASPIASPI first commercial silicon-28 shipments (guided Q3 2026)Converts the Western Si-28 supply monopoly from narrative into recognized revenue — the first commercial-scale enriched silicon-28 ever delivered outside Russian supply chains.
  • 30PolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act floor votes / enactment (S.3597 / H.R.8462)Both chambers' committees cleared the bill in April 2026; enactment extends the NQI through 2034 and funds the federal lab and program demand that flows straight to narrow-linewidth laser, AOM, and precision-optics suppliers.
  • 30PolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act — House floor vote (H.R. 8462)The bill cleared House Science committee April 29, 2026 and directs Commerce to produce a quantum supply-chain resilience plan plus new NIST quantum centers — the first federal vehicle that names and funds the hardware supply chain behind UHV-dependent qubits.

November 2026

  • 06ProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative — Stage B concludes, Stage C downselect window opensThe 11 Stage B teams (IBM, IonQ, Quantinuum, QuEra, et al.) must defend control architectures that scale to utility by 2033; Stage C selections reveal which merchant control vendors are designed into the surviving roadmaps.
  • 30ProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage B-to-Stage C decisionsDARPA's verdict on which of the 11 Stage B roadmaps (including IonQ and Quantinuum) are credible for utility-scale by 2033 is the closest thing to a government-graded falsification test — advancement or exclusion forcibly reprices each platform's credibility, as Rigetti's initial Stage B miss showed.
  • 30ProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C selection decisionsStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; winners get funded fault-tolerant prototype builds, and the cohort's silicon-spin and photonic teams (Diraq, Quantum Motion, Photonic, Xanadu) all depend on advanced-CMOS foundry partners — real bills of materials landing at GF-class fabs.

December 2026

  • 01ProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C selectionsStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; only four of the eleven — IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, QuEra — are trapped-ion or neutral-atom machines, and those are the laser-hungry ones whose survival would ramp narrow-linewidth laser and AOM orders.
  • 08ConferenceQ2B26 Chicago quantum industry conference (Dec 8-10)The commercial quantum industry's main order-announcement venue, where fridge vendors, superconducting-qubit makers, and quantum datacenter operators reveal capacity and procurement plans.
  • 08EarningsGCHHFGooch & Housego FY2026 full-year resultsThe only listed near-pure proxy for AOM supply; order-book growth (record £167m at H1) and photonics lead-time commentary are the cleanest public read on whether this chokepoint is tightening.
  • 08ConferenceQ2B26 Chicago (with Chicago Quantum Summit), Dec 8-10The industry's flagship commercial conference is where pure-plays historically drop roadmap updates, fidelity records, and enterprise deal announcements that move the whole listed basket.
  • 08ConferenceQ2B26 Chicago (Dec 8-10, Marriott Marquis Chicago)The commercial-quantum scorecard where Quantinuum, PsiQuantum, and QuEra publish roadmap proof points — the first Q2B with a public QNT tape to react in real time.
  • 15ProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C down-selectStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; only four of the eleven — IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, QuEra — are trapped-ion or neutral-atom machines, and those are the laser-hungry ones whose survival would ramp narrow-linewidth laser and AOM orders.
  • 15ProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C selectionsStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; only four of the eleven — IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, QuEra — are trapped-ion or neutral-atom machines, and those are the laser-hungry ones whose survival would ramp narrow-linewidth laser and AOM orders.
  • 15ProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C selection decisionsStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; only four of the eleven — IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, QuEra — are trapped-ion or neutral-atom machines, and those are the laser-hungry ones whose survival would ramp narrow-linewidth laser and AOM orders.
  • 15ProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative — Stage C downselect decisionsStage B (started Nov 2025) is roughly year-long; Stage C funds utility-scale prototype builds for finalists like IonQ, Quantinuum, QuEra and Atom Computing, converting single-chamber lab UHV procurement into industrial-scale vacuum system orders.
  • 18PolicySenate floor action on National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act of 2026 (S.3597)The bill cleared Senate Commerce unanimously in April 2026 with amendments creating a quantum manufacturing institute — a direct federal funding channel for domestic isotope and superconducting-materials supply chains.
  • 31ProgramQNTDARPA QBI Stage C downselect — end of yearlong Stage BStage B (started Nov 2025, yearlong) includes Quantinuum and QuEra among 11 teams; advancement to the final stage is non-dilutive government validation that reprices both cap tables, and elimination breaks them.