quantumbottlenecks

Catalyst calendar

The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.

AllI · Cryogenics & dilution refrigeratorsII · Helium-3 & cryogen supplyIII · Isotopes & quantum materialsIV · Control electronics & cryo-CMOSV · Lasers & precision photonicsVI · Ultra-high vacuum systemsVII · Qubit fabrication & foundryVIII · Classical co-processing & error correctionIX · Platform pure-playsX · Private giants & exposure vehicles

High-impact · next 30 days

  • 2026-09-30Senate floor vote on National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act (S.3597)
  • 2026-09-30National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act — House floor vote (H.R. 8462 / S. 3597)
  • 2026-09-30National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act floor votes (H.R. 8462 / S. 3597)
  • 2026-09-30National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act (H.R. 8462) House floor vote
  • 2026-09-30National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act floor votes / enactment (S.3597 / H.R.8462)
  • 2026-09-30National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act — House floor vote (H.R. 8462)

September 2026

  • 30highPolicySenate floor vote on National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act (S.3597)Passed Commerce unanimously in April 2026; reauthorization through 2034 plus a quantum manufacturing institute would fund the US decoder and control-silicon R&D pipeline this chokepoint feeds on.
  • 30highPolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act — House floor vote (H.R. 8462 / S. 3597)The bill cleared House Science markup April 29 and Senate Commerce unanimously; it directs Commerce to produce a quantum supply-chain resilience plan and funds testbeds — federal procurement that flows directly into control-stack vendors.
  • 30highPolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act floor votes (H.R. 8462 / S. 3597)Both chambers' bills cleared committee in April 2026; a five-year reauthorization through 2034 funds the national labs and NIST/DOE centers that are the marginal buyers of dilution refrigerators.
  • 30highPolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act (H.R. 8462) House floor voteCleared committee April 29, 2026; the companion Senate bill routes ~$2.5B of quantum R&D through DOE — the same department whose Isotope Program rations He-3 — so passage directly scales fridge and He-3 demand.
  • 30highPolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act floor votes / enactment (S.3597 / H.R.8462)Both chambers' committees cleared the bill in April 2026; enactment extends the NQI through 2034 and funds the federal lab and program demand that flows straight to narrow-linewidth laser, AOM, and precision-optics suppliers.
  • 30highPolicyNational Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act — House floor vote (H.R. 8462)The bill cleared House Science committee April 29, 2026 and directs Commerce to produce a quantum supply-chain resilience plan plus new NIST quantum centers — the first federal vehicle that names and funds the hardware supply chain behind UHV-dependent qubits.
  • 30mediumProgramASPIASPI first commercial silicon-28 shipments (guided Q3 2026)Converts the Western Si-28 supply monopoly from narrative into recognized revenue — the first commercial-scale enriched silicon-28 ever delivered outside Russian supply chains.
  • 13lowConferenceIEEE Quantum Week 2026 (QCE26), Toronto, Sep 13-18The industry's main technical venue for real-time decoder results; FPGA-vs-GPU decode latency benchmarks presented here will sort winners and losers at the decode layer.
  • 13lowConferenceIEEE Quantum Week 2026 (QCE26), Toronto, Sept 13-18The industry's main hardware-roadmap venue: qubit-count and fault-tolerance announcements here translate directly into wafer demand at the handful of trusted foundries with quantum process lines.
  • 13lowConferenceIEEE Quantum Week (QCE26), Toronto, Sep 13-18The main vendor floor where UHV suppliers court trapped-ion and atom-array builders; watch for quantum-specific vacuum product launches and supply partnerships announced around the exhibit.

November 2026

  • 06mediumProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative — Stage B concludes, Stage C downselect window opensThe 11 Stage B teams (IBM, IonQ, Quantinuum, QuEra, et al.) must defend control architectures that scale to utility by 2033; Stage C selections reveal which merchant control vendors are designed into the surviving roadmaps.
  • 30mediumProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage B-to-Stage C decisionsDARPA's verdict on which of the 11 Stage B roadmaps (including IonQ and Quantinuum) are credible for utility-scale by 2033 is the closest thing to a government-graded falsification test — advancement or exclusion forcibly reprices each platform's credibility, as Rigetti's initial Stage B miss showed.
  • 30mediumProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C selection decisionsStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; winners get funded fault-tolerant prototype builds, and the cohort's silicon-spin and photonic teams (Diraq, Quantum Motion, Photonic, Xanadu) all depend on advanced-CMOS foundry partners — real bills of materials landing at GF-class fabs.

December 2026

  • 18highPolicySenate floor action on National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act of 2026 (S.3597)The bill cleared Senate Commerce unanimously in April 2026 with amendments creating a quantum manufacturing institute — a direct federal funding channel for domestic isotope and superconducting-materials supply chains.
  • 01mediumProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C selectionsStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; only four of the eleven — IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, QuEra — are trapped-ion or neutral-atom machines, and those are the laser-hungry ones whose survival would ramp narrow-linewidth laser and AOM orders.
  • 08mediumEarningsGCHHFGooch & Housego FY2026 full-year resultsThe only listed near-pure proxy for AOM supply; order-book growth (record £167m at H1) and photonics lead-time commentary are the cleanest public read on whether this chokepoint is tightening.
  • 15mediumProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C down-selectStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; only four of the eleven — IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, QuEra — are trapped-ion or neutral-atom machines, and those are the laser-hungry ones whose survival would ramp narrow-linewidth laser and AOM orders.
  • 15mediumProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C selectionsStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; only four of the eleven — IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, QuEra — are trapped-ion or neutral-atom machines, and those are the laser-hungry ones whose survival would ramp narrow-linewidth laser and AOM orders.
  • 15mediumProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage C selection decisionsStage B (11 companies, began November 2025) is a yearlong evaluation feeding Stage C down-selects; only four of the eleven — IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, QuEra — are trapped-ion or neutral-atom machines, and those are the laser-hungry ones whose survival would ramp narrow-linewidth laser and AOM orders.
  • 15mediumProgramDARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative — Stage C downselect decisionsStage B (started Nov 2025) is roughly year-long; Stage C funds utility-scale prototype builds for finalists like IonQ, Quantinuum, QuEra and Atom Computing, converting single-chamber lab UHV procurement into industrial-scale vacuum system orders.
  • 31mediumProgramQNTDARPA QBI Stage C downselect — end of yearlong Stage BStage B (started Nov 2025, yearlong) includes Quantinuum and QuEra among 11 teams; advancement to the final stage is non-dilutive government validation that reprices both cap tables, and elimination breaks them.
  • 08lowConferenceQ2B26 Chicago quantum industry conference (Dec 8-10)The commercial quantum industry's main order-announcement venue, where fridge vendors, superconducting-qubit makers, and quantum datacenter operators reveal capacity and procurement plans.
  • 08lowConferenceQ2B26 Chicago (with Chicago Quantum Summit), Dec 8-10The industry's flagship commercial conference is where pure-plays historically drop roadmap updates, fidelity records, and enterprise deal announcements that move the whole listed basket.
  • 08lowConferenceQ2B26 Chicago (Dec 8-10, Marriott Marquis Chicago)The commercial-quantum scorecard where Quantinuum, PsiQuantum, and QuEra publish roadmap proof points — the first Q2B with a public QNT tape to react in real time.

Past

  • 2026-08-26NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earnings
  • 2026-08-18Keysight fiscal Q3 2026 earnings
  • 2026-08-14ASP Isotopes Q2 2026 earnings and Renergen helium production update
  • 2026-08-13Coherent Q4 FY2026 earnings
  • 2026-08-12IonQ Q2 2026 earnings
  • 2026-08-12ASP Isotopes Q2 2026 results
  • 2026-08-04GlobalFoundries Q2 2026 earnings — first print after Quantum Technology Solutions launch
  • 2026-07-30Linde Q2 2026 earnings
  • 2026-07-29FormFactor Q2 FY2026 earnings report
  • 2026-07-29FormFactor Q2 FY2026 earnings
  • 2026-07-23Honeywell Q2 2026 earnings — first print since the Quantinuum IPO
  • 2026-07-16Atlas Copco Q2 2026 results